The Reedz Bros League Table

[menzinho]

I’ve stumbled across a table that might be similar to what was in the Reedtz Brothers recent statement. It ranks the teams on how well they create chances (Expected Goals - XG) and how easily the opposition create chances against you (Expected Goals Against - XGA). And then it calculates the points from that.

You can view the table here: https://footballxg.com/xg-league-tables/ You then need to click on the drop down menu on the right hand side which says "League" and change it to: England - league 2.

A little XG explanation for those who need it:  XG, it’s a is a metric designed to measure the probability of a shot resulting in a goal. So if one player has a chance from two yards out in front of an open goal, and another player has a shot from 40 yards out and near the touchline, clearly one has a far greater chance of scoring than the other. XG simply assigns a value to every shot. So if you are producing a high XG but not scoring many it likely means the players are simply not good at finishing (or you keep coming up against very good GK, unlikely though). Whilst at the same time if your XGA is very high but you’re not conceding many goals it probably means you’ve got a great keeper amongst a bit of luck (cos the chances of the opposition constantly missing chances would be slim).

This is my first time seeing this table too, I know a little bit about XG but I’m not claiming to be an expert. I certainly don’t think it’s the be all and end all of stats as I know there are many aspects of football that you can’t really measure and you can still have a dangerous attack that doesn’t end in a shot for whatever reason. But I get how it can be helpful when assessing a team’s performance in terms of how well they attack and defend.

It's helpful that they’ve used colour coding, green for good and red for bad (there are no surprises for the colours for our chances created and conceded here!) So in this table we are in 8th position and if the games were decided by XG we would've had 6 more points. We’re very good at creating chances, we’re also very good at giving the opposition good chances too. Interestingly we are overperforming our XG, but to be honest all good attacking teams will usually do this. Even though we've conceded the most goals, by our XGA stats we aren't the worst in the league - just the third worse! It is still high/bad though and giving away all those penalties won't have helped either. That said based on these stats it suggests we’ve conceded 8 goals more than we should've. That would most likely come down to a few long-range goals but also probably some shots our keepers should’ve saved…

You can change the "start date" by just typing in "20/01/2024" to see the table from SM's time (that was his first game). Whilst you can’t argue the fact we’re bottom of the form table (only by a point now though), we’re mid-table based on XG/XGA and this data has us with 9 more points in that time period too. I guess this is why the board are more hopeful than the majority of us fans!

[Wheelbarrow repair man]

 Unfortunately menzinho but XG and XGA Data Doesn't Win  Football Matches. Goals Do Notts can have 99.9% of play have 100 shots on goal But once the Final Whistle Blows and the opposition have One More Goal then They Get Three Points and the Magpies Don't. And it would seem the current Notts playing Model which as been Adopted is also based on this Data. I wonder if  there's Data about how boring this type of Tippy Tappy pass back to the Keeper or Backwards and Forwards and Sideways Football is. What about the Data which says once the Opposition have found out how to close down your Game Plan and you end up Losing more matches than you Win?

[Robbie 𝕏 @Robbie_NCFC]

Looking at this league table it shows some very revealing stats. The top four sides in the real league table almost match the top four in the XG league so it must have some legitimacy in being able to measure how a team is performing.

With Notts standing in eighth place with this XG table compared with their true current position of 15th in the league 2 table, it could demonstrate why the Reedtz brothers believe that the team over the season has performed much better than their true league position suggests.

It certainly explains why the Reedtz brothers are continuing to support Stuart Maynard because it looks like the way they are looking at it, Notts will have only narrowly missed the standard to gain a play off place.

I wonder how many owners in the EFL actually base their decisions on this XG table when deciding what changes to make, either Managerial, or with the playing staff? 

I hope that Palmer & Montague are asked questions about weather they do use a similar model to ascertain team performance, & why they think it is useful when they join the Magpie Circle question & answer podcast.

It could be very revealing.

 

 

[Wheelbarrow repair man]

The Data says Notts says should be 8th Well They Ain't they're 15th. Data 0 Real World 1. What ever happened to the Football Scout who could go and watch a player and either say Yes that player would be ideal for the team or No he's not the guy for us. Examples Peter Taylor and Mick Jones Now what does the the Recruitment team do then? Put a players name into a Computer which the churns out numbers such as Goals scored assists made tackles done  accurate passes etc etc  signing the player without actually going to see him play? Is it the same Computer that said certain Notts players were up to League 2 standard when obviously they're Not? Data 0 Real World 2. There is No way a Computer can calculate how a certain player is feeling on a certain match day things such as problems in their private lives, such as a lack of confidence that's where a Coaches Man management comes in and if the Coach doesn't have that skill or struggles with it, well it's not going to help matters now is it?  No matter how clever the Data is, it can't  Calculate the Human  aspect of things.                              

[Ohh Tommy Johnson]

16 hours ago, Wheelbarrow repair man said:

 Unfortunately menzinho but XG and XGA Data Doesn't Win  Football Matches. Goals Do Notts can have 99.9% of play have 100 shots on goal But once the Final Whistle Blows and the opposition have One More Goal then They Get Three Points and the Magpies Don't. And it would seem the current Notts playing Model which as been Adopted is also based on this Data. I wonder if  there's Data about how boring this type of Tippy Tappy pass back to the Keeper or Backwards and Forwards and Sideways Football is. What about the Data which says once the Opposition have found out how to close down your Game Plan and you end up Losing more matches than you Win?

They will be looking at it and thinking that over time the performances will result in.. well, results! The data shows we are actually playing better than the results suggest, the question is why isn't this resulting in us being in 8th (and conversely why are Morecombe 10th and not fighting relegation)? It is interesting that LW had us exactly where we should have been - 6th. So we have dropped off in terms of both relative performance and points, but we are are still way below where our performances would suggest.   It's a case of trusting the process and over the longer term we should end up closer to where are performances suggest we should be. If you are willing to pay then there is a lot more data beneath the high level stuff they provide for free, which will give much more information to work from.  

You have presented a very binary vision too - Data 0 - 2 Real World.  That isn't how it works.  I don't for one second think they feed stats into the computer and then sign players based on that.  They will be using the data to inform their decisions.  They will have data on how well a player passes, how many duels they win, how much ground they cover etc etc.  There will be a type of player that fits our system... but then mentality and character also play a big part, and that is where the scouts and watching the player comes in.  We seem to be pretty good at spotting an attacker (Jones, Macca, Crowley, Austin, Scott.  Didzy may be a bit different as I suspect that was less data driven), but I would suggest that defence is more difficult at our level, and that is where they may need to change the model slightly to look at traits such as tenacity, determination, etc.  

In terms of Data 0 - 1 Real World, they should be using the data to look at where things need to be changed or focussed on to bring things in line, and then exceed expectations.  This is where the bigger dataset comes in, that we can't see.  Even then 15 games is a tiny set of data to base decisions on.  We have had some awful performances, so OK performances and a couple of really really good ones.  Those extremes will have a disproportionate impact on the data set, but hopefully what we have seen in the last couple of games is the information being used to move the team forward.

Anyway, I'm waffling, but hopefully you get the drift.. data is only a tool and needs to be used properly. I think that we do that at Notts. We are just having a short term dip at the moment, but the data shows that even if we carried on as we are we should end up mid-table.  I think that is why the owners aren't panicking.. unlike the owners at Wealdstone (who have the additional pressure of a relegation battle). The trick is to use that information to move the dial upwards.

[Robbie 𝕏 @Robbie_NCFC]

@Ohh Tommy Johnson

This all suggests to me that professional Football is going high tech with this data/decision gathering/making 

The game is changing in so many ways, but I've seen a similar kind of model used in recruiting Supervisors, Managers Senior Managers in industry although it's a different type of formula used.

Candidates are asked to fill in a questionnaire, perform role model exercises and go through several stages of interview. Then the results are put into a Computer to get results.

But as you intimated, there is the virtual world & the real world and there are some things a computer can't tell you.

For instance, can it tell you when a player/candidate is liable to panic or rush his decision making which leads to mistakes by the team which leads to losses.

Can it tell you about an obstinate Manager/Candidate who carries on wanting the team to play/work the same way when it's clearly apparent that it's not working?

I think that a models such as these can be useful, but it is not the be all or end all to gathering  data /decision making.

Statistics don't lie and are very revealing, goals scored, goals conceded, matches won, matches lost, 5 home defeats on the spin, 3 wins & 9 defeats in 15. Bottom of the form league table in 2024.

[Ohh Tommy Johnson]

I think we are in agreement - data is a tool and when it becomes the be all and end all it ceases to be useful.  It should be one of the tools in the toolbox and nothing more... but it can be useful in giving a picture of what is happening behind the bare results. 3 wins, 9 defeats tell part of the story, the fact that performances show we were better than that also tells part of the story, what the players are saying is another part and what the owners are seeing around the club is another. 

One thing I did notice, is that under Williams we were 6th both in the actual table and the data table, but under Maynard, even if we were equalling expectations we would still be just mid table, so there is a drop off in performance too,  Again context is important as Williams was playing on good pitches early in the season, more suited to our style, whereas Maynards team have been playing on potato fields. Maybe there is a lesson to learn there - playing our way on poor pitches makes our life difficult.  

It would seem that Maynard is getting more of that right than wrong, and the owners believe given time we will see that in terms of wins. Only time will tell.

[Wheelbarrow repair man]

With the way Tech is advancing how long will it be before we get A I Coaches and Robot players? Think about it, you wouldn't have to pay your players, No training required No injuries No special Player diets, No need for Transfers just up date your programming. Coaches would be Super Computers which could switch game plans in micro seconds it would be Great until you get a Glitch or maybe a Virus, then you might get a slight problem.

[Ohh Tommy Johnson]

33 minutes ago, Wheelbarrow repair man said:

With the way Tech is advancing how long will it be before we get A I Coaches and Robot players? Think about it, you wouldn't have to pay your players, No training required No injuries No special Player diets, No need for Transfers just up date your programming. Coaches would be Super Computers which could switch game plans in micro seconds it would be Great until you get a Glitch or maybe a Virus, then you might get a slight problem.

I don't doubt that they aren't looking at this at Boston Dynamics or similar Japanese and Chinese organisations.  At the end of the day, it is only the robot side of things that is missing - computers can run a football team already - FC24? It's the mechanics that need to catch up. I think that, in reality, what would happen is the game would soon degenerate into a stalemate as each computer would counteract the moves of the other; you will always need humans to make mistakes and introduce the unexpected.

In a modern game you aren't going to get away from using a lot of data - from fitness, to analysing tactics and players.  It's here to stay and those clubs that don't embrace it will be at a huge disadvantage.  The modern game is all about using data to identify improvements, identify sills and players to fit into a system and so on,  I don't think it is surprising that more and more coaches are not necessarily ex players, as a coach now has to be able to understand and use the information in their coaching, which isn't necessarily a skill set of an ex player.  

[Wheelbarrow repair man]

Ohh Tommy Johnson my comment was made with tongue in cheek. And before Robots wouldn't Cybernetics come first ? Footballers with Cybernetic legs, Goalkeepers with telescopic arms. Defenders with telescopic necks  despite all the Cybernetic  Footballers will still have human brains, so Mistakes will be made.

[DangerousSausage]

I can see why they're using that information - a game can turn because of a poor refereeing decision or individual mistakes by players. How many managers have been sacked prematurely by panicked boards because of things they have absolutely no control over?

All the same, it's often forgotten that data and AI are tools and need people to manage and interpret them. I'm positive that our owners do this as well. If they only looked at statistics, Luke Williams - who at that time had a win percentage of 26% - would never have been appointed. Spotting players with unrealised potential is also a less exact science, for that you need know-how and contacts in addition to stats.

[Ohh Tommy Johnson]

17 hours ago, Wheelbarrow repair man said:

Ohh Tommy Johnson my comment was made with tongue in cheek. And before Robots wouldn't Cybernetics come first ? Footballers with Cybernetic legs, Goalkeepers with telescopic arms. Defenders with telescopic necks  despite all the Cybernetic  Footballers will still have human brains, so Mistakes will be made.

I realised it was tongue in cheek, but it got me thinking that we are probably closer than we think to it. .. and that it would be very boring.