Macca analysis : "he's actually been under-performing when it comes to expected goals!"

[Piethagoram]

 

[Robbie]

Absolute ridiculous analysis as far as I'm concerned.

A striker has to have the skill to get into the right positions. He needs to have a good football brain to read the game and he needs good anticipation.

A good striker has to also have the instinct for goals too, which Macaulay has an abundance of.

And last but not least, a striker needs good supply route and he has that in abundance with Jones, Crowley Nemane and Didzy.

Any striker that has ever lived will never have converted every chance he had, there are so many variables to take into account. 

The part about higher clubs might be put off tells you everything. Looks to me as though some are trying to devalue Macca for higher clubs to try to steal a bargain. It won't work.

[Wheelbarrow repair man]

Very Good Analysis. Which means that Macca isn't worth bothering about and should be left at Notts.

And in the Real World. Who the Hell comes up with this totally Insane Data? I'm in full agreement @Robbie It's just some idiot trying to devalue Macca's Worth and get him at a cheaper Price. Because Any Team in any League including the Premiership if they play to Macca's strengths will be  Rewarded with a sack full of Goals. Now there's the Rub playing to a Player's strengths, how many times have we seen a Player move from one club to another for a Vast amount of money only for that player to fail at his new club, due to the fact he's played in the wrong position i.e he plays deeper or in a position he's not used too. Then there's players who reward their New Clubs with a Hat Full of Goals and a Superb Season thanks to the fact their Clubs play to their Strengths and play them in their Best positions. Step forward Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham.  Interestingly though both Now Play Abroad.

The only Reasons in my opinion why Macca didn't score more goals is the fact he had to drop back and Defend. The times I've watched Macca run from a defensive position and a quick ball over the top would have given him a chance to run at a opposition defender and attack the opposition goal, only to see him left surrounded by half a dozen defenders who have got back thanks to the Tippy Tappy play it from the back System played by Notts. Macca is a Striker who's Job it is to Score Goals. NOT to defend the Magpies Goal.

 

[Robbie]

I agree @Wheelbarrow repair man

You brought up an important point about defenders releasing the ball up field either by kicking it long over the top or incisive quick passing through the lines to either Macca, Jatta, Nemane and jones.

When on occasions they did that it worked, trouble is, they didn't do it enough.

If the goalkeeper and defenders has done more of that, Notts would not have conceded so many silly avoidable goals by the mistakes made at the back.

[Wheelbarrow repair man]

Another thing @Robbie do you think that all of the Notts team coming back to defend tend to get in each others way? And could that also be a reason why Notts have given away 17 penalties this season?

[Ohh Tommy Johnson]

Actually, I've said for a while that Macca is very wasteful in front of goal, but you could look at it in a positive light - he should get better.  During our bad run he missed several sitter which could easily have changed the course of the matches as they were nearly all the opening goal.  All that doesn't mean he isn't great as he gets into those positions, but he still misses a fair number of opportunities. Remember Kevin Bartlett - he was great, but how many chances did he miss? 

Gateshead fans always rated Scott more highly and said he was more clinical in front of goal, but I don't think his style suited LW as much and he didn't get so much time, but I seem to recall that, last season, Scott either had a higher goal per minute or goal per chance stat (I don't recall which).  I am looking forward to seeing what he can do next year, and if Macca does go, I am hopeful that we may not miss him as much as some fear.  I would be more concerned if Crowley and / or Jones went as they are the main source of chances, and I think that is why them going is more likely than Macca leaving. 

[Ohh Tommy Johnson]

It's also interesting that he starts to underperform more as he has moved up the leagues. I wonder why that is as xG should only reflect the average number of times that a particular chance is scored and shouldn't reflect the defence... and you would feel that a better striker is more likely to put a chance away.  I don't fully understand how those stats are generated though.

 

He also seems to have a blip around January in 21/22 and 22/23, but this year he has been underperforming all season.  I wonder if the added pressure created by knowing we are unlikely to keep a clean sheet was weighing as we have needed to score a lot more than last season to win a game.  Just a thought.

Edited April 30 by Ohh Tommy Johnson

[DangerousSausage]

On what planet is 28 league goals underperforming? He's in a very elite group of strikers to have scored that many for us in a season, and he's done it twice.

It's absolutely normal for any player to go through good and bad runs, and nobody will score every chance they get. 

[Robbie]

@Ohh Tommy Johnson

There are many reasons why strikers miss chances.

The ball is bobbling about when they kick the ball, their shot is blocked, the keeper makes a great save, the striker is impeded by a defender but no foul is given, the striker doesn't get the service, the striker is injured or not fit, the opposing defence is too good or too physical.

There are lots of other reasons such as where the striker is told to play.

All we need to know is that Macaulay got the golden boot and beat all the strikers in the sides that were promoted.

I wouldn't describe Macaulay wasteful at all. His positives far outweigh any negatives

There is a certain striker that cost over £100 million, Erling Haaland and he misses lots of chances too.

So I don't see a problem here.

 

[Robbie]

2 hours ago, Wheelbarrow repair man said:

Another thing @Robbie do you think that all of the Notts team coming back to defend tend to get in each others way? And could that also be a reason why Notts have given away 17 penalties this season?

I believe the biggest problem was that the defence was simply not good enough at this level, such as being too slow, unable to perform under pressure & lacking ball skills to cope with opponents at this level.

If a player is not quick enough either on the ground or mentally, they are more likely to make mistakes or foul in pressure situations. Note that these players made less errors in the National League because that was their ceiling level.

There was another important factor too, The Wingbacks that were great going forward were not so good at defending, then our attacking midfielders weren't very good either.

That may have been the reason why defenders, wingbacks, & midfielders got in the way of each other resulting in big mistakes being made and why penalties were conceded too.

When Notts played in the NL, those same mistakes did happen but not at the same frequency we've seen this season.

[Ohh Tommy Johnson]

1 hour ago, Robbie said:

@Ohh Tommy Johnson

There are many reasons why strikers miss chances.

The ball is bobbling about when they kick the ball, their shot is blocked, the keeper makes a great save, the striker is impeded by a defender but no foul is given, the striker doesn't get the service, the striker is injured or not fit, the opposing defence is too good or too physical.

There are lots of other reasons such as where the striker is told to play.

All we need to know is that Macaulay got the golden boot and beat all the strikers in the sides that were promoted.

I wouldn't describe Macaulay wasteful at all. His positives far outweigh any negatives

There is a certain striker that cost over £100 million, Erling Haaland and he misses lots of chances too.

So I don't see a problem here.

 

Don't get me wrong, nor do I!  You can be both wasteful and a great striker, in fact maybe it is part of what defines a great striker - if a lesser striker misses a few they may not continue getting into those places to put the next chance away.  I wonder what Kane, Lineker or Rooney's stats look like.  It wouldn't surprise me to see they missed a load of chances too. I do disagree with the analysis that teams up the pyramid will look at the stats and think 'he is wasteful', they are much more likely to think 'he can improve even more, maybe be the next Vardy',

I also don't think it will be a disaster if he did leave as the money would be handy, the fact that it will show Notts can enhance your career (along with Rodriguez and Wootton), which will allow us to attract better players who are ambitious, and I think Scott being more clinical will do us just fine along with Jatta,  

[Robbie]

@Ohh Tommy Johnson

I agree that it won't be a disaster if he leaves. We have the strikers that could easily bag 20 goals a season without Macaulay.

Using the proceeds of his transfer fee or even just part of it, to build the defensive part of the Notts squad, would give big dividends if used wisely.