A trend I'm getting worried about

[ivansneck]

Lower division football is in danger from the near-extinction of 'home advantage'.

This season in the 4th division there have been more away wins than home wins. This is not a good thing for attendances. Overall only 35% of games this season in the 4th have been home wins, so one way of looking at this is that only on 1 out of every 3 matches do the home fans go home happy. Not enough occasions for attendances to grow.

It's slightly better higher up, but not much: in the 3rd division 40% of games have been home wins, in the 2nd - 46% and in the top division 41%.

I haven't looked at previous seasons but my gut feeling is that it used to be higher than this - certainly one didn't see more aways than homes in an entire division...

 

Home 62

Away 64 W 54 D

[Piethagoram]

As regards Notts, I believe JS sets up his teams as to not to lose... To be frank, some of the football at home has been dull as dishwater..hence the relative quietness of the crowd. Yesterday's match was an improvement but I still feel we lack spark to immediately put teams on the back foot. 

[Who r ya?? You Pies!!]

Some interesting stats in what you say @ivansneck , teams seem  better suited to playing on the break away from home us included , Strong home performance's where the home team is really dominant do as your stats point out seem less common , it is a worry for home attendance's if it becomes a long term pattern , would be interesting to see what longer term stats reveal , that's one for a statistician out there .

[Chris]

Isn't it time for a club like Notts to set this straight? Its all down to the quality (or lack of) and the fact many clubs are on levelling pegs in terms of anyone can beat anyone.

If you aim for promotion you really need to have good home form.

[Who r ya?? You Pies!!]

I personally think teams are set up not to get beat , rather than be brave and go for the jugular , the more offensive you go I feel the need for quality in midfield and attack is amplified , if you have that you can go for it , ya equipped for it . 

[DangerousSausage]

I wrote a long, boring post on this ages ago. It's not just us, it's a long-term trend. Here are a couple of random examples.

                No. of teams that won more at home than they lost                                   No. of teams that won more away than they lost

2015-16                          13                                                                                                                 12

1999-2000                      16                                                                                                                  5

1985-86                          21                                                                                                                 4

In 85-86, two of the clubs that had to apply for re-election and could have been relegated to the Conference won more than they lost at home, something only 11 teams have managed this season. This has been going on for a long time. The good news is that attendances have boomed at the same time that home form has declined, so it's unlikely to have any effect there.

The shift has coincided with the move to all-seater stadia. Whereas it was probably much more intimidating to play at an away ground in the past, now many grounds look alike and the crowds are quieter. Or maybe it's as simple as teams being better prepared tactically and psychologically when travelling away?

[ivansneck]

Here's my evidence.. This is the precentage of home games won in Division 4 since its conception in the late 1950's. Obviously there is an inbuilt fluctation seson on season but the overall downward trend is remourseless. Not good news for season ticket sales at this level. This is for all teams of course, not just Notts.

[ivansneck]

Evidence part 2. The mean number of home goals scored since the start of division 4 by all clubs. Note the significant 'Alf Ramsey' factor around the mid sixties when wingers went out of fashion. Then it remained statistically constant until 1981 when 3 points for a win was introduced and there was a minor increase which was over by the mid 80's. Since when there has been a slow but significant decline. At this rate by 2048 home fans will see less than 1 home goal per game on average. Only a significant alteration of the laws can change this sort of long term change. The obvious one to me is bigger goals.

 

[DangerousSausage]

Thanks for the stats @ivansneck, I love stats

It's been going on longer than I thought then. I've checked Bundesliga 2 in Germany and the trend is the same - 10 of the 18 teams won more than they lost at home last season, compared to 16 (including two teams that were relegated!) in 1999-2000 and 17 in 86-87. So it looks like my theory about less intimidating away grounds isn't correct. Teams are more tactically organised and often bring a safety-first mentality on their travels, with more and more success.

I'm dead against bigger goals. I think it would be better to encourage attacking football by changing the points system - maybe an extra point for a margin of victory of two goals or more?

[ivansneck]

My worry about changing the points sytem is that it's positive effect will get negated in a few seasons as the 3 points for a win effect was in the 80's. My belief is we need a change that coaches can't negate by changing systems, attitudes etc. It's their job, I know, and I don't blame them for doing it.

Another thing about the goals is the average height (and therefore, lateral reach) of goalkeepers will have increased over this period although I can't bothered to do the stats!!

I don't like the bigger goals idea but the only other significant change I can think of is reduce to 10 players per team, or increase the length of the game. neither would necessarily change the proportion of away wins, but both would produce more goals.

[Riverleeno]

Its been frustrating the past few seasons that many of Notts' better performances have been away. Interesting that it seems to be part of a wider trend. If clubs sack managers after just a few poor performances then attacking entertain football won't be seen at home. Moniz tried it but probably didn't have enough quality players like @Who r ya?? You Pies!! mentions to make it work.