Beyond the Victory: Analysing the Post-Promotion Performance of National League Playoff Winners

There are some interesting statistics when looking at the previous teams who have won the National League playoffs since they were introduced for the 2002-03 season.

Those 21 finals have seen 8 of them go to extra time (and beyond) while only one of them has been won by more than a 2 goal margin.

Exeter, Grimsby, Forest Green and Tranmere all won after losing the previous year’s final while Luton followed consecutive losing finals by winning the league!

Almost all losing finalists have eventually made it into the league although Gateshead, Fylde and Torquay also saw relegation to NLN or NLS.

The first winners – DONCASTER ROVERS with 4 players with Notts connections – beat Dagenham on golden goal or, as it was called for this game, ‘promotion goal’ (the only time promotion has been settled that way in the UK).

They immediately won the Third Division as it was called then and have had 3 spells in the Championship, albeit one season spells, and they are now in League 2.

SHREWSBURY TOWN beat Aldershot on penalties in 2003-04 and finished 21st in their first season back but were 11 points clear of relegation. After 3 playoff campaigns in 7 years, they eventually got promoted in second place and reached the L1 playoffs before falling back into tier 4, bouncing back the following season.

Currently, in League 1.

CARLISLE UNITED beat Stevenage 1-0 and followed that up by winning the League Two title at the first attempt. After an 8-year stay where they had a playoff campaign, they fell back into League Two and have just won the playoff final to get back into League One.

HEREFORD UNITED twice came from behind to beat Halifax 3-2 after extra time in the only game to be played at Leicester City’s ground. It was also the only game where neither club currently exists in the same form. They finished 16th in their first season in L2, gaining automatic promotion the following season.

They rarely left the relegation zone, falling back into L2 immediately and fell back into the National League after 3 seasons and were expelled then wound up in 2014.

MORECAMBE beat Exeter in the 2006-07 final – the first to be played at Wembley - to become the first side to earn a place in the Football League for the first time and managed 11th placed finishes in their first 2 seasons, following that up with a playoff spot. In the 2019-20 Covid shortened season, they were 22nd after 37 games and stayed up then bounced back to win the playoffs the following season and get to League 1. They managed 2 seasons at that level and will face Notts next season in League Two.

2007-08 was probably the year when things stepped up and for 10 years almost all finalists were typical Football league sides who had fallen on hard times as EXETER CITY beat Cambridge United.

They immediately went up again as runners-up and spent 3 years in League One before dropping back into L2 where they spent 10 more seasons before gaining another runner-up spot.

Currently, in League One.

Cambridge were broken-hearted again next season as they became the first side to lose consecutive finals, losing to TORQUAY UNITED.

The Gulls finished 17th in their first season back and reached the playoffs twice before returning to National league football in 2014 and a further relegation back to NLS in 2019.

Another NL playoff campaign beating Notts in the semi-final gave them hope before relegation again last season.

Currently, in the National League South.

OXFORD UNITED beat York City in 2009-10 and finished their first season back in 12th place. They went up to League One in 2016 and are another side to have reached the playoffs at that level.

Currently, in League One.

AFC WIMBLEDON squeezed past Luton Town on penalties in 2010-11 in only their 9th season of existence, including 3 league titles and the lowest final position of 8th. It’s been hard work for them since then, following a final place of 16th in their first season with 20th, 20th and 15th before getting into League One via the playoffs in 2016.

Since then, they haven’t finished higher than 15th and were relegated last season.

Currently, in League Two.

YORK CITY were the next team to inflict final defeat on Luton (whatever happened to them?!), returning to the league after an 8-year absence. They finished 17th in their first season back in the league, securing survival late in the season and managing a L2 playoff spot before suffering consecutive relegations after just 4 years in League Two.

Currently, in the National League.

The 2012-13 final was an all Welsh affair, with NEWPORT COUNTY getting the upper hand against Wrexham. They finished in a comfortable 14th place in their first season back and followed that with 2 narrow escapes, including a famous ‘Great Escape’ as they were 11 points adrift with 12 games left, securing survival with a last day win against Notts.

Famous for their cup runs, they also had 2 unsuccessful playoff campaigns, losing in both finals.

Currently, in League Two.

CAMBRIDGE UNITED beat Gateshead in the next final, a Wembley double with an FA Trophy win as well, and finished 19th in their first season back. Shaun Derry then guided them to 9th and after 7 seasons in League Two (mainly in the bottom half) they finished runners-up in 2021 to gain promotion.

Currently, in League One.

2014-15 saw BRISTOL ROVERS beat Grimsby on penalties in front of the largest final attendance of 47,029 to gain an immediate return to EFL after just one season. They followed this up with another promotion, finishing 3rd in L2 in their first season back, returning to L2 after finishing bottom of the league 5 years later. Again, they made an immediate return with a third place finish in 2021-22.

Currently, in League One.

GRIMSBY TOWN bounced back from that disappointment a year later, beating Forest Green Rovers to return to the EFL after a six-year absence. Three managers, including Russell Slade, took them to 14th place in L2 in their first season back.

After 5 seasons, 5 managers and 4 caretakers, they were back in the National League in 2021, bouncing back at the first time of asking after a dramatic playoff campaign saw them win at Meadow Lane and Wrexham.

They finished in 11th place last season as the only team to have won the National League playoffs twice.

Currently, in League Two.

FOREST GREEN ROVERS followed suit and recovered from disappointment a year earlier to beat Tranmere Rovers in the final. This made Nailsworth the smallest town ever to host a Football League club and ended a 19 season long run in the National League without promotion, the longest consecutive period since promotion to the EFL began.

They finished 21st and one point above relegation in their first season (a season where Notts were in the playoffs) and managed two playoff campaigns in three seasons before winning the league in 2022.

They only lasted one season in League One, being relegated last season.

Currently, in League Two.

TRANMERE ROVERS completed a hat trick of losing finalists coming back to win promotion as they beat Boreham Wood in the 2017-18 final after being in 18th position after the first 12 games.

They gained back-to-back promotions as a sixth-place finish got them into the playoffs and some would say unluckily relegated from L1 in a Covid shortened as positions were decided on a point per game basis when they were on a run of three consecutive wins when the season was called to a halt.

Currently, in League Two.

SALFORD CITY gained the largest final win with a 3-0 victory over AFC Fylde as the two smallest clubs to contest a final albeit with significant investment especially for Salford. They finished in eleventh place during Covid shortened season and made it into playoffs last season.

Currently, in League Two.

HARROGATE TOWN broke Notts hearts during Covid enforced empty Wembley Stadium as third winner moved into EFL for the first time. They have finished seventeenth, nineteenth, and nineteenth during three seasons.

Currently, in League Two.

HARTLEPOOL UNITED beat Torquay on penalties ending a four-year spell in non league but only managed to finish seventeenth, twenty-third returning to National league next season, making the quickest return for any previous winners.

Currently, in the National league.

As mentioned, GRIMSBY TOWN won again twenty-twenty one twenty-two beating Solihull finishing eleventh in league two last season.

Of nineteen previous play-off winners nine will face Notts next season in league two action six plying trade league one two hoping to repeat success in national league one national league south one disappeared.

After fantastic start play off winners returns two sides winning division first three seasons seems hard work only two sides last fourteen years managing top ten finish cautionary note perhaps overall average final position twelfth first season back.

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