How things have changed table wise over the last few matches. Notts now find themselves in eighth place, twelve points behind leaders Bromley & more importantly four points behind Walsall who are in third place.

Notts have only scored one goal in their last four matches, even though Paterson is playing Jatta & leading scorer Matt Dennis together.

Injuries to key players have not helped. Influential midfielders Palmer & Robertson have been a big loss, Jones is not in the best of form, & as a result Notts are not creating the movement from the back that can create chances for our leading scorers.

The transfer window is upon us & Notts have already brought in two players, one of those should challenge for a first team place. So the question is, are you confident that Notts can still achieve an automatic place or is a playoff place more likely now?

Here is the current League 2 Table.

I think those that say it depends on the transfer window are close to the mark. We need a couple of immediate, quality first-team contributors to have a shot.

By definition, promotion seasons require promotion-level players for the respective league. Not the whole team, but you need at least seven and then the rest can be below that but aren't weak links.

We might be on the wrong side of the line there. Palmer and Robbo were playing like promotion-level players, but when they're out we're so obviously not a promotion team.

We have Platt/Rodmac, Bedeau, Tsaroulla, Dennis, Jatta,

Robbo and Palmer, fit and on best form take you to the 7. Macari is border line. And Iorpenda when playing CM.

IMO We need that GK alternate and the promotion-level AM

[For reference, our NL final. team in 2023 - Baldwin, Cameron, Palmer, Nemane, Jones, Rodrigues, Langstaff were the 7.

Bostock almost. Rawlo, Austin, Chicksen, made up the numbers but didn't let us down]

@theAnticlough  has it spot on IMO. In any team game you need 1/3 very good, 1/3 good and 1/3 competent or there abouts for success.

I'd take Belshaw for one but the playmaking, number 10, attacking midfielder whatever will be crucial for a chance of automatics. We need more than just the spirit and grit that MP has installed to unlock tight defences.

Sadly JJ looks out of sorts and I can't see any of the young loan signings or any player without significant experience being able to provide the answer.

I like the sound of Browne and Enoru but they are probably both for the future, or at least 10 games down the line in Enoru's case as coming from part time is a big ask.

Could be an exciting January!

We can, but it all depends on some smart business during this window. The spine of the team is lacking, from the goalkeeper through to the number 10 position, and if we don't bring in players who can improve us immediately it will catch up with us.

Now the table. This is the table at this point last season:

In terms of points there's little difference all in all, it's going to be close once again. Note that none of the top three teams eventually went up (two of them didn't even make the play-offs). We were above three of the four teams that eventually won promotion (and the other one was only above us on goal difference). We blew it in the second half of the season.

Bradford eventually won automatic promotion on just 78 points, Vale got 80. We're currently on course for 75 despite our limitations. An injection of quality and flair could give us the push we need to get that to 80+.

My other point in response to @theAnticlough is that it isn't always obvious who will be a promotion-level player. You mentioned Tsaroulla; Gordon came with him, who was also a promotion winner at Crawley yet has struggled to hold down a place for us. On the other hand, Dennis arrived to a lukewarm reception and Rodmac went under the radar. In the NL, Langstaff was a great prospect but it was by no means guaranteed he'd make the step up (I remember Sean Canham), while Rodders needed a fair amount of time to acclimatise. None of this is an exact science. Let's hope whoever comes in gives us a good shot and success and let's get behind them!

It's a stretch now mathematically. Four points is easy to claw back when you're at the bottom, but at the top, over only half a season, you need a fantastic run of form. You can't afford a bad month. Yes, Bradford did it last year so there's hope, but we don't quite have the players, the ruthlessness, or the luck with injuries. And the first two signings in this window have been 'ones for the future'.

We're now 7/1 at the bookies i.e. a 12.5% chance.

More realistic to hope MP can find the right formula in time to put up a good fight in the play-offs.

I tend to agree with @Sheffield Pie with his summing up of Notts's chances of automatic promotion. A couple of good additional signings might give an opportunity of making the playoffs at least.

There are up to 16 teams above and below Notts that will be challenging for either a automatic promotion place or a place in the playoffs. Half a dozen of those teams could go on a decent run. One of those teams has to be Notts which at the moment is a bit of a stretch.

Promotion is definitely achievable, but it’ll come down to a few key things. Consistency is the big one — cutting out the dropped points against teams in the bottom half and turning draws into wins.

Keeping the defence tight while maintaining our attacking style is crucial, especially away from home. Squad depth will also matter as the season wears on, so smart rotation and avoiding injuries could make the difference.

If we stay in touch with the top seven, build momentum at the right time, and hit form going into the run-in, there’s no reason we can’t push for the play-offs — and once you’re in them, anything can happen. Come on you Pies 🖤🤍

Is automatic promotion still possible? Notts have 12 games left, they are currently on 61 points. Notts have five home games & seven away games left to play.

I think that in the last 12 games Notts need at least another 13 points to achieve a playoff place & at least 24 points to clinch promotion.

I think barring a terrible loss in form, Notts can get the 13 points or more with matches to spare, however getting the 24 points for a promotion place is going to be more difficult. I think a playoff place is the most likely.

Thoughts?

Agree@Robbie 

I'd say Play-offs 60% Autos 30% 8th or below 10%, something like that, changing after each game.

Your about on the mark there @theAnticlough

As you say 3/10 chance for the autos.

This could go up with three wins on the bounce starting with Walsall. We just need to aim for a good playoff place and then see what happens.

24 points out of 36 available is a tough ask. We've earned 22 points from the last 10 games so it's possible, but with the extra pressure of having to perform consistently is another factor to consider with 12 games left.

A win tomorrow would be an enormous boost

Notts have certainly shown that they are capable of playing at a high level. Notts just have to play at that high level consistently for the next 12 games starting against Walsall.

As you rightly point out @Robbie consistency is key to our fate this season, if the players can maintain a good level of quality over those games, key players keep fit, injured players return and we get the rub of the green we could very well achieve automatic promotion. There are a lot of factors that need to come together for us to reach our dream, one thing is for certain it’s going to be an exciting end to the season so let’s buckle up and enjoy the ride.

Yes, no doubt we have to be consistently good to get around 24 points over 12 games. Also agree @Fan of Big Tone on the injuries and the rub of the green.

I think something else will be needed though - improvement in a key area

By and large, we have been pretty consistent, bar a few out-of-character flat, slow-paced performances or poor tactical games. Even then, nobody has really dominated or rolled over us.

Across the back and middle thirds of the pitch we have been consistently strong. The problem has been in the attacking third. It hasn't been from lack of attacking intent - it's a personnel problem. Too many of our squad fail to execute in the final third, suddenly lose their composure and fail to find that pass, snatch at a shot or fail to shoot at all.

There's no risk of singling out players because there have been so many like this (including really, really good players for us).

- Macari, Bedeau, Tsaroulla, Iorpenda, Grant, Kouhyar, Bennetts, Gordon, Cotter, Traore....there's 10, right there.

We had 1 player who could keep his composure - but he was sent back to Shelborne. For the sake of balance, maybe he should've stayed. Time will tell

So yeah consistency, injury luck, general luck, key decisions - but I don't think we can get autos unless with make a leap in final third execution.

Wouldn’t it be great if Jatta returned today and along with Dennis hit a rich streak of form bagging loads of goals between now and the end of the season sealing promotion with games to spare.

One can dream.

Eleven games left.

5 home, 6 away.

3 consecutive sway games against Oldham, Harrogate & Salford will be massive. None of the eleven games left will be easy. Every one, a cup final.

82 points might be enough. 6 wins from 11 matches. Win our home games & one away.

14-03-26. Notts v Chesterfield

17-03-26. Accrington v Notts

21-03-26. Notts v Cheltenham

24-03-26. Oldham v Notts

28-03-26. Harrogate v Notts

03-04-26. Salford v Notts

06-04-26. Notts v Newport

11-04-26. Cambridge v Notts

18-04-26. Notts v Barnet

25-04-26. Colchester v Notts

02-05-26. Notts v Bristol R

If the game in hand that we have, and MK Dons/Cambridge United goes our way, and we win. It could push us much closer to Bromley. Notts only needs a few more wins to seal a promotion place, and whilst that is good, the club shouldn't just sit on that. We need to push for an automatic space, there's still much that can happen and its highlighting why wins like yesterday are crucial as we almost came back with no points.

I'd like to believe we could mount a bid for the title, but I think just being in contention for an automatic place is more realistic.

I am hoping that we can continue to win, even when the performances aren't the best and come the final six features it would be satisfying to see us in a similar position as we are now. That would make me believe we are capable of securing 2nd or 3rd.

@Chris

I did a little research & Notts are 6 points in front of where they were last season at the same stage.

Notts scored 14 points from their last 11 matches, so Notts are in a better position points wise & form wise, so there is hope we can improve on last season's points total.

It would really be something special, if we can start a new winning streak and use that to fuel us into a top 3 finish fight. I really hope MK Dons mess up and fall into the playoffs, but it's interesting to know we are doing better at this stage in comparison to last season.

I think it's 50/50 for me personally. We're a very dogged team that MP has got firing when we think we're onto a loss, but injuries are likely to slow momentum at any given time.

Say if Belshaw gets injured (as is the epidemic across League 2), it could be catastrophic. I'm dying to see Palmer, Jatta and Luker back, but seemingly from what Patto says, we're not gonna know for a while which I think could invigorate us. I did like Bennetts and Tangen last match and I'd love them to play where Grant and Hall play because, and I'll try to be nice, they're a total detriment to scoring.

I'm obviously vying for a automatic prom because I've gone and booked a hol over the playoff dates 😅

We are as good as anyone in this league. For automatic promotion, we have to get our injured players back. With a full squad and the team spirit we have at present, we can definitely get top three.

It's more than possible, but always difficult. You generally need 80+ points to go up automatically from this division, which would equate to six wins out of our last 11. That's more than achievable. But with Bromlex having a bit of a head start and the franchise hitting form at the crucial time, it could end up being a three-way race between us, Swindon and Cambridge for the last spot. I've been half-expecting Bromley to drop off for a while now as they're very one-dimensional, but to date their "tactics" have proven very effective.

We do have options, it's just up to MP to juggle them correctly. As @theAnticlough says, we have a lot of players with the same weakness, which means we often have trouble unlocking the door. Having Jatta and Ndlovu back will help enormously.

Spot on with the juggling, @DangerousSausage. I don't think anymore that there's 1 formula in the squad that'll solve the No.10 positions. It's going to have to be by committee.

If MP's going to continue with the box midfield I dread it being, as a regular line up,,...

Norburn Palmer

Iorpenda Grant

We're going to need more mobility, unpredictability, energy and production than that. I'd like to see Iorpenda partner one of the older CMs (who share a position) and MP pulling surprises for the No.10s. MP's willingness to change the shape, when needed, will also be important IMO.

Yes

The bookies have it as a five horse race (Salford, the sixth favourites, are a long shot at 8/1). Converting the odds, they give Bromley an 83% chance, MK 75%, Cambridge 67%, Notts 56%, Swindon 23%.

I still don't rate Swindon. Our game at Cambridge is massive, win there and we're in the driving seat. Bromley have lost the knack of nicking a win. It's 100% there for the taking, we just have to play to our potential in the kind of games where we tend not to turn up - the Chesterfield and Salford games being the ones that worry me the most.