The bookies don't fancy Notts County to go up

[Joe Jones]

The Nottingham Post has been doing a bit of digging round and has seen that Notts County have been given the lowest odds to go up by the bookies.

From the article:

Lincoln, and the Magpies’ semi-final opponents Coventry, are joint favourites to go up to League One, having been priced at 9/4.

Paul Tisdale’s Exeter are 3/1 while the bookies make Notts outsiders to win at Wembley, having made them a 7/2 shot.

Despite Coventry finishing sixth and Lincoln seventh, the bookies fancy those two teams to fight it out under the Wembley arch.

But being written off may be the motivation that Exeter and Notts need to ensure they are the ones enjoying a capital day out.

Obviously we know the bookies get it wrong more often than not and many predictions have fallen short this season especially (Shrewsbury were expected to finish bottom of League One...) but as the article says, could this be the perfect motivation for King Kev and his troops to stick two fingers up to the bookies and go all out?

[Elite_pie]

I take it you're not a betting man Joe!  The bookies have given us the highest odds to go up not the lowest.  The higher the odds, the lower the chance.  To illustrate this if the odds are converted to a percentage chance, Coventry and Lincoln are given a 30.8% chance of promotion, Exeter a 25% chance, and us a 22.2% chance.  Also, the bookies very rarely get it wrong - they don't care which team wins, they just build in a margin so they profit whatever the outcome.  The average price for a one in four chance is 3/1, but the prices on offer average out at 2.75/1.  Sorry to be pedantic, but this is one of my pet subjects!

[Fan of Big Tone]

Yep, you don’t see many poor bookies, it’s their business to get it right and they normally do otherwise they wouldn’t be in business, betting is a mugs game unless you’re a bookie.

I don’t mind Notts being the underdogs the players should be up for this, they shouldn’t really need motivating, Notts have finished higher than Coventry and Lincoln but I don’t think that counts for anything in the play offs, it’s up to who plays best on the day and maybe has a bit of luck along the way, fingers crossed it’s us,

[DangerousSausage]

We should also bear in mind that Coventry and Lincoln get higher crowds than us and likely have more people betting on them for reasons relating to rose-tinted spectacles. And as for Exeter, the team that finished immediately below the automatic promotion spots always tends to be fancied. As the odds indicate, there's little between the teams anyway.

[Chris]

Right now form and performances tend to go out the window, bookies won't be able to hold much barring on matters with regards to what they think - they said we'd go up as Champions many of them and that turned out to be wrong. I think its just a case of seeing what's what but we need to go to Coventry and attempt to keep the score respectable as I feel Meadow Lane is our best shot towards getting in the final.

3 cup final games hopefully!

[Magic magpie]

Typical book makers I think .. may a £10 on County if they are think enough to count us out they deserve to loose