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Let's look at the data

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Posted

Apologies but I'm a scientist and have been trained to look at the numbers when making a decision on something. So let's see what the Trews want to watch at Meadow Lane.

What follows is an anlysis of the home league games since the start of last season. Read from the bottom up - the last four columns are the average for points per game, posession, shots for Notts and shots against Notts. I have a season ticket for home league games, i.e. these are the games I paid to see.

56a4e99a2b1ab_Screenshot2016-01-2414.58.

My personal conclusion is that the Board are either very stupid (unlikely), very gullible (possibly), very impatient (probably) or want to destroy NCFC (I don't believe this to be the case).

So, my message to Ray Trew is please bring back Ricardo Moniz, and then stop choosing the manager for NCFC.

 

 

How many shots did we have yesterday? We only had one against Crawley Town supposedly, so yesterday we had 10?? I didn't see many.

The thing is, JF is trying to solve the defence with limitations - it's clear to anyone we need a defender, majority of ex-players would agree with this. We can't play people out the position in which they are comfortable in, especially with the depth we have in this Notts team. We have decent wingers at the club, even still we could play Hayhurst who hasn't been given a chance all season and JF plays Adams on the wing.

I'm not going to read into the stats just yet, it's early but it shows that work needs to be done. Good start, somewhat flawed by yesterday but give him time.

I know it's the decision in which most question but I want to try and be fair to JF - despite not agreeing with his squad selection or post match interview.

Play Hayhurst??????  Is that a really, really bad spelling mistake and you meant to type Snijders?

I would rather see Mike Edwards on the wing than Hayhurst.

  On 24/01/2016 at 22:11, Elite_pie said:

Play Hayhurst??????  Is that a really, really bad spelling mistake and you meant to type Snijders?

I would rather see Mike Edwards on the wing than Hayhurst.

Ha! Not a spelling mistake but I did miss 'we could', I've amended my post to make actual sense.

Though to be fair, Hayhurst looked good on his debut and I am sure it's there to be seen again - If JF could get it out of him, I don't know but it's frustrating to see players who can do a job there omitted for players who douldn't be seen there at all.

  On 24/01/2016 at 22:11, Elite_pie said:

 

I would rather see Mike Edwards on the wing than Hayhurst.

After Saturdays team selection, that doesn't even seem far-fetched. 

  On 24/01/2016 at 22:46, notts-joe said:

Ha! Not a spelling mistake but I did miss 'we could', I've amended my post to make actual sense.

Though to be fair, Hayhurst looked good on his debut and I am sure it's there to be seen again - If JF could get it out of him, I don't know but it's frustrating to see players who can do a job there omitted for players who douldn't be seen there at all.

he's omitted because he has an ACL

  On 25/01/2016 at 01:35, erindoors said:

he's omitted because he has an ACL

Fair enough, is Snijders injured? Just curious.

  On 25/01/2016 at 02:11, notts-joe said:

Fair enough, is Snijders injured? Just curious.

No, but has two far more serious reasons why he cant get near the team..

1) He has actual ability 

2) He isn't British

  On 24/01/2016 at 20:03, notts-joe said:

How many shots did we have yesterday? We only had one against Crawley Town supposedly, so yesterday we had 10?? I didn't see many.

The thing is, JF is trying to solve the defence with limitations - it's clear to anyone we need a defender, majority of ex-players would agree with this. We can't play people out the position in which they are comfortable in, especially with the depth we have in this Notts team. We have decent wingers at the club, even still we could play Hayhurst who hasn't been given a chance all season and JF plays Adams on the wing.

I'm not going to read into the stats just yet, it's early but it shows that work needs to be done. Good start, somewhat flawed by yesterday but give him time.

I know it's the decision in which most question but I want to try and be fair to JF - despite not agreeing with his squad selection or post match interview.

regarding shots in Ivansneck's stats 'Post-moniz' will include the game where Dryden and Halsall were in charge.

  On 25/01/2016 at 09:38, Riverleeno said:

regarding shots in Ivansneck's stats 'Post-moniz' will include the game where Dryden and Halsall were in charge.

should have gambled on them. :(

  On 25/01/2016 at 02:11, notts-joe said:

Fair enough, is Snijders injured? Just curious.

No, he's not. He's got some great qualities and I'd like to see more of what he can do, but he'll say himself, he's got a few things to work on. Good, hard working lad, he is.

Notts have one of the biggest squads in the FL, why would there be a need to play anyone out of position? All that was required was a balance between defence and attack, which an experienced manager would have seen and addressed. Instead we got a woefully inexperienced "manager" who feels the need to impose his style of play which A. doesn't work and B. is horrible to watch. Asking fans to fork out 24 quid to watch hoofball is a bit too much.....

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And it's losing hoofball into the bargain. Fans will watch it if it you win the league.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  On 26/01/2016 at 10:06, erindoors said:

No, he's not. He's got some great qualities and I'd like to see more of what he can do, but he'll say himself, he's got a few things to work on. Good, hard working lad, he is.


Well that puts his injury rumours to bed. :)

  On 26/01/2016 at 18:41, notts-joe said:


Well that puts his injury rumours to bed. :)

No, he's played first half in the U21's today 

Give Fullarton time to fix the way we attack, yes 3 chances in two games is poor but how much falls onto the players?

  On 27/01/2016 at 05:50, AmericanPie said:

Give Fullarton time to fix the way we attack, yes 3 chances in two games is poor but how much falls onto the players?

The same players that have been scoring for fun at home under Moniz? Probably not a lot, then...

  On 24/01/2016 at 15:18, ivansneck said:

a scientist and have been trained to look at the numbers when making a decision on something.

Surly as a scientist you would not accept such a small sample size to make a major decision. it does not allow for anomalies, such as a poor referee who could have awarded 2 clear penalties, and a number of free kicks but didn't. That human intervention, or lack of it, would have changed your findings completely. Such spurious data will not be absorbed by the norm in such a short time.  

Modern football management uses statistics to show strength and weaknesses in the team and players. every pass tackle cross and shot will be counted along with weather it was successful or not. But stats, however meticulous can mislead. A 40 yard bobbaler that my gran could stop  might be classed as a shot on target, where as a header against the bar whilst being challenged by the centre half and keeper is a miss.

I understand your need to make some order out of the chaos but there is insufficient data to project a finding. Besides, only stat that really counts at the end of the day is the result. In ten years time that's all the record will show.

 

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