Are we staying up?

[DangerousSausage]

How do you rate our chances of staying up? I give us a 25% chance.

In favour of us staying up:

- Despite the season we're having and thanks to the epic crapness of a couple of teams around us, we're still just three points (and an X-rated goal difference) off safety. We need to make up one point on Yeovil over seven games to have a chance on the final day - surely that's doable?

- Our last matches are against Grimsby and Swindon, who probably won't have anything to play for. Maybe they'll be thinking of their holidays already?

- We've brought in some players who are up for the fight, the defence looks tighter and Hemmings has found his shooting boots.

- Two seasons ago Newport had 33 points from 38 games - the same as us - and were six points adrift, yet stayed up.

In favour of relegation:

- We've already had a series of six-pointers, and we have choked every time (one example being the six unanswered goals Yeovil put past us this season, that could cost us big).

- We have one player who looks capable of scoring, a pretty bad position to be in when we need wins.

- In 2016-17, Newport won five and lost three of their last eight games and stayed up by two points on the final day. When have we showed signs of putting that kind of run together?

What do you all think? Still got hope, or have we had it?

[liampie]

50/50 at the moment, 4 points is doable and with the current form its quite possible to survive. winning home games is a must tho.

[BigBill]

I would like to say yes, I know that its still possible but I think its more likely Notts will go down. Macclesfield have a better run of fixtures, Notts has some tricky ones. I think to stay up 14 points is required depending on the two other teams.

I'm not sure where those points will come from.

[ivansneck]

It’s 2 down from 3 so I give us 33% chance


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[Chris Website URL Visit Site 𝕏 fmcj10 Instagram fmcj10]

Notts will probably do enough to leave this question open to the very last game, I don't get how this always happens, but I can imagine no answers will be given until that point. I would say 35-40% at this moment, I hope the form can continue to pick up, but Neal Ardley must start thinking during games about how performances can improve. Morecambe could have been a much better result had we decided to throw more up top.

[Magic magpie]

We are staying up I have a feeling at the moment we are getting points 3 on Tuesday and 1 yesterday it all helps towards the great escape.

[batonncfc]

While there's still chance, there is still hope but I do think its more likely that relegation is the most likeliest.

[menzinho]

When you see the stats like: Not winning any of our first 9 games and then the spell where we won 1 match in 18 games (that was from Matchday 13 through to Matchday 30). It’s surprising we haven’t already been relegated!

We’ve been awful against teams down the bottom this season, giving them the gift of 3 points or more and that really hasn't helped.

Looking at our run in I’d think no chance. But for some reason (somehow) we’ve picked up all our wins (Macc aside) against the teams in mid-table or the top half. Crawley aside, we haven’t really got anyone who’s down the bottom.

Honestly, I think it’ll be close but given our really poor spells earlier in the season and the fact it’s not in our hands I think we might slip out the league.

But looking at this makes me feel more hopeful… It needs to stay like it though!

[upthepies]

I am still 50/50 because every time it goes 30% or lower, Notts gives you a shred of hope and it increases with each win.

[TheSkipper 𝕏 TheSkipperNCFC]

20% is how I feel.

Winning Morecambe could have seen it rise to 40%, if the form continues it could give more hope but it's looking desperate.

[DangerousSausage]

On 17/03/2019 at 23:14, menzinho said:

When you see the stats like: Not winning any of our first 9 games and then the spell where we won 1 match in 18 games (that was from Matchday 13 through to Matchday 30). It’s surprising we haven’t already been relegated!

We’ve been awful against teams down the bottom this season, giving them the gift of 3 points or more and that really hasn't helped.

Looking at our run in I’d think no chance. But for some reason (somehow) we’ve picked up all our wins (Macc aside) against the teams in mid-table or the top half. Crawley aside, we haven’t really got anyone who’s down the bottom.

Honestly, I think it’ll be close but given our really poor spells earlier in the season and the fact it’s not in our hands I think we might slip out the league.

But looking at this makes me feel more hopeful… It needs to stay like it though!

Thanks for posting this! 11 points over our last eight games would leave us on 44 points. If Yeovil continue their awful run that might just be enough, but pretty much everyone else will be out of reach. Realistically we need to win 4 of our last 8 minimum.

[allardyces tash]

It's going to be anyone's guess at this stage, but it looks grim.

[TM1993]

I would say 32% based on the current form, there's a little hope remaining but time isn't a friend of the clubs.

[B&Wstripes]

No, we look as good as gone to me but I live in hope.

[heraldmagpie]

I think relegation is almost certain, I don't want to be negative but it's all but confirmed at this stage.

Over the years I have supported Notts, I know when the teams not good enough to pull together and do enough to survive.

[SmithyPie]

30/35% of staying up, if a few good results come our way who knows?

[cheeky~k8]

We need a miracle i think.

[menzinho]

Another weekend of football is nearly upon us and the number of games left to play is running out!

Yeovil and Macc are climbing the table with all the pace of the Brexit negotiations, they’re going nowhere and we just seem happy to join them. Honestly these few weeks have been like watching a three-way snail race. I just want to go into the dressing room and shake them and scream into their faces! Because on paper it’s so doable, it’s painful. We could’ve been out of this battle weeks ago.

The form table shows we’re in real trouble now, we’re not doing enough to get out of it. However now is probably as good as any time to play Stevenage, they’re also struggling.

I’m still hopeful we can do it but if we do get relegated it won’t be a shock, and that is tragic!

[cheeky~k8]

We still have a chance, but not a big one.

[JimmysIncredible]

I will tell you after today's game!!

[cheeky~k8]

Right now thats abit hard to say.

[super_pie]

0% I hate saying it but it's true

[NottsTastic]

If Ardley had the balance right and Notts attacked directly, I think the club would stay up but he parks the bus so I think you can scrap all of what I said.

[ivansneck]

10%


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[cheeky~k8]

Surprisingly we still have the slightest chance but thats only because the other 2 teams above us also lost their games today.